High Plains Drifter

disclaimer:  "The meteorological views/forecast thinking expressed are those solely of the author of this blog
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"

May 17, 2005

Chaseday Forecast: May 17

Filed under: Chase Forecasts/Outlooks,Storm Chasing — storm300 @ 12:19 pm

Today is a chase day. I will be leaving Dodge City shortly, heading north to an area from Colby, KS to McCook, NE. Low level moisture will be lacking for tornadoes, it appears, however with a strong upper level disturbance moving into the high plains, good convergence and adequate instability and shear should support a decent supercell or two. I will be in search of "tail-end Charlie", a term storm chasers like to coin for the "end-of-the-line" southernmost storm that usually has the best environment to be a sustained longer-lived supercell. We’ll see what happens… at this point, it looks like tail-end Charlie will be vey near the NE/KS border… *maybe* as far south as I-70, but we’ll see. I don’t like the heavy cirro-stratus sheild moving into western KS at this time… but by 5pm, I think this will be less of a problem. -Mu

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