High Plains Drifter

disclaimer:  "The meteorological views/forecast thinking expressed are those solely of the author of this blog
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"

January 31, 2011

Central U.S. Winter Storm and Cold Air Outbreak 2011 February 1-2 [5]

Filed under: 2011 Feb 1-2 — Mike U @ 11:53 am

Watch out for the warm layer aloft! The potential for heavy sleet will wreck snow accumulations for some folks.  I think the warm layer aloft, maximized around 800mb or so per the latest NAM, will extend as far northwest as my virtual chase target (Columbia, MO).  I think south-central Missouri to Saint Louis may see enough of a warm layer aloft from 775 to 825mb to see sleet.  In fact, far south central into southeast Missouri will likely experience quite an ice storm as maximum warm layer aloft temperatures may exceed +3°C.  The series of images below shows this morning’s 12z simulated reflectivity from the 12km NAM.  I also overlaid the 800mb critical temperatures, in 1°C intervals from -1C to +5C.  In pink is the NAM model 31-34°F surface temperature range.  Note the overlap of warm 800mb temperatures into the surface cold air with the precipitation moving across southeastern Missouri into far southern Illinois during the day Tuesday.

Series of 6-hr interval images from the this morning’s (12z Jan 31) 12km NAM model valid from 12z Tuesday 2/1 through 06z Wednesday 2/1


  1. Curious how you make these overlays?

    Comment by John Deck — January 31, 2011 @ 2:30 pm

  2. Hi John. I am using Unidata’s IDV software (which is Java-based and kind of intimidating) to make my model output grahics… then bring them into Powerpoint to annotate on them.

    Comment by Mike U — February 1, 2011 @ 1:29 am

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