High Plains Drifter

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and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
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January 31, 2011

Central U.S. Winter Storm and Cold Air Outbreak 2011 February 1-2 [7]

Filed under: 2011 Feb 1-2 — Mike U @ 10:51 pm

A historic cold & windy day expected in Dodge City tomorrow! Well we may not be catching the snow end of this storm, but Southwest Kansas will bear the brunt of the cold + wind aspect of this storm.  There is no missing out on this.  A very rare combination of a 1052mb arctic high and a dynamic 1000mb low will be positioned perfectly such that Southwest Kansas will be right in the middle of the two.  Arctic air is already in place, and as of the time of this writing, the temperature at Dodge City was 10°F (Fig. 1).  The temperature will continue to steadily fall on 30 to 40 mph north winds all night and through the day Tuesday.

It should be noted that it is very rare to see temperatures hovering around 0 to 5°F throughout the day in Dodge City.  It is even more rare to see 25 to 40 mph winds tied to these temperatures.  This is a very anomalous cold event.  Reaching wind chill advisory criteria (-15°F) is difficult enough as it is for Dodge City, let alone wind chill WARNING criteria (-25°F), given the new equation for Wind Chill Index.  I have never seen the wind chill, with the new equation, reach colder than -20°F in Dodge City.  The combination of wind and temperature should lead to wind chill index readings of -25°F on just sustained wind alone!  In gusts, the wind chill will likely get as cold as -32°F!!  See Figure 2 below showing the RUC forecast temperature and wind gusts for 15z (9am) tomorrow morning.  Quite amazing.

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

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