Finally, some decent snow for Dodge City this season. About time. It looks like a 3 to 5″ snow event will affect Dodge City, KS and surrounding areas. The 08/00z runs of the NAM gives Dodge City about 0.55″ of QPF while the GFS and Canadian GEM offer around 0.30 to 0.40″ or so. What is interesting about this storm is that the thermodynamics in the lower-mid troposphere will be characterized by a very deep layer within the dendritic growth zone (-12 to -18°C). Saturation and lift through this deep growth zone layer will likely support liquid-to-snow ratios of 1:15 if not higher… to 1:18 or so. Therefore, 0.40″ QPF would yield 6 or 7 inches of snow. The official forecast for Dodge City is for 3-6″:
Tuesday: Snow likely before 9am, then snow and areas of blowing snow after 9am. High near 18. Wind chill values as low as -1. Breezy, with a east northeast wind between 22 and 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Tuesday Night: Snow and areas of blowing snow before 2am, then snow likely and areas of blowing snow between 2am and 5am, then areas of blowing snow and a chance of snow after 5am. Low around 0. Wind chill values as low as -19. Blustery, with a north northwest wind between 15 and 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Here is a surface map as of 06z (Midnight CST) showing the approaching arctic airmass ahead of the approaching upper low. Snow was already underway across western Nebraska and much of northeastern Colorado:
The following series of images show the 05z run of the 20km RUC model of 700mb Wind/Temperature/Heights along with Composite Reflectivity every three hours from 09z to 21z Tuesday. The last image is the RUC forecast snowfall accumulation total through 21z:
