High Plains Drifter

The 24th may very well be a “Day 2 Setup” day. It’s still 5 days out, but the new GFS including Ensembles, Canadian, and ECMWF model suggest that the lead system of interest will rapidly eject northeast into the Rockies and substantially weaken as it hits the ridge. This would put the central plains in a weak-modest short-wave northwest flow behind the system with a front well to the south. Should this pan out, then there won’t be any chasing Wednesday. I don’t want to chase south on Wednesday, because it would just be a one-day deal…. then a haul clear up north where the Day 6-8 progs are showing very nice flow coming across the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. It will take awhile before adequate moisture makes it up into northern Nebraska/Dakotas… but this is clearly where the best mid-upper flow will be for supercells. So, at this point, from what I see in today’s GFS… The “dart” will be Rapid City… and the Firehouse Brewery …a logistical target only for Thurs-Fri setup. Subject to change of course……. stay tuned!

GFS 500mb:

GFS Surface:

Canadian Model:

Here’s the updated dart-board. The red star means it’s a Day-2 positioning destination, and not really a chase-day target based on the GFS. More later!