I am parked on the south side of Greensburg along the dryline. South
wind here about 25 mph. There is a significant southwest momentum
surge to the west-southwest of me with winds 35 to 50 mph. I think
this will add to convergence in this area by 21-24z. I still feel
optimistic that a storm will develop along the dryline down here.
There is a cumulus field extending along a north-south line just to
the east of me… in the mid 60s dewpoints. I feel that the better
convergence will actually develop a bit southwest of me over the next
couple of hours and should see towering cu field form… hopefully….
from Laverne OK to Ashland KS or so
disclaimer: "The meteorological
views/forecast
thinking expressed are those solely of the author of this blog
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"
April 9, 2011
chase day update 4/9 2:35pm
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I was disappointed this morning when I woke up and saw upper 50s dewpoints in north Texas advecting northward. I think the only chance of a tornado today is if initial storms develop and lay down a boundary for the next storms to move along. I just hate to see strongly negative CAPE trends in the area im targeting. I think this is what happened yesterday. The storm near Enid in the evening really wrapped up and may have been located along an outflow boundary. Of course the best chance of a tornado this evening is in northeast east-central Nebraska and into northwest Iowa where winds are backed, dewpoints and higher. So that is the obvious play for today.
Comment by Jonathan Finch — April 9, 2011 @ 3:18 pm
yeh I’m really liking that area down in the Gypsum Hills north to GBD. Noticed DDC’s dwpt tanked from 45 to 34 in an hour. Nice DL bulge with a rather healthy Cu field, but seems the best convergence may be up toward Great Bend?
Comment by Evan Bookbinder — April 10, 2011 @ 6:25 am