Well… all along it certainly appeared that there would be a significant chunk of that big Pacific trough would eject northeast into the Plains. The question was when it would eject…and exactly where and how strong. It appears we finally have enough consensus in the models to say that the “when” will be Tuesday (the 23rd) and the “where” will be somewhere in Nebraska.
Given this faster scenario…and the fact that Wednesday (our original start day) looks marginal at best in western Iowa along with Thursday being down, it appears… I decided to take Tuesday off work and have Stacie and Jay meet me here in Dodge earlier so we can make Tuesday a chase day.
Anyway, the updated dartboard is below.. I changed the Day 1 to May 23 and the icon on the dartboard for May 23 is a blue circle instead of a star to represent this change in Day 1.
The scenario I’m playing in my head now is..
- Day 1, Tue May 23=Nebraska (photogenic supercells?)
- Day 2, Wed May 24=Western Iowa (early afternoon under cold pool aloft?)
- Day 3, Thu May 25=Travel to Dakotas (down day?)
- Day 4, Fri May 26=Somewhere in the Dakotas (marginal supercell chase day?)
- Day 5 and beyond…. ?? (Wayyy too unclear)
