Morning analysis shows a sfc low near Miles City with lower 50s dewpoints in northeastern MT. Looking at the 06z NAM, it appears this first sfc cyclone will continue moving northeast into western ND….with a weak front moving south into far southeastern MT by early afternoon. As this is happening, significant mid level flow perpendicular to the Big Horns will support pronounced lee cyclone development downwind of the Big Horns. The NAM has been showing this for many runs. Looks like that front will stall along a line roughly from Sheridan to Broadus to Capital. Winds east to northeast of this boundary will advect in near 50 dewpoints in this area it appears. 87/50F sfc parcel supports about 1300 to 1500 J/kg CAPE along this axis from Broadus to Capital by 00z. The shear profile looks very good with a broad looping hodograph in the 0-6km layer. This environment certainly supports supercells. Looks like we may head north to Broadus this afternoon.
disclaimer: "The meteorological
views/forecast
thinking expressed are those solely of the author of this blog
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"
May 26, 2006
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