Stacie and I are at Jay’s in Lawrence. We drove all night down I-29 from North Dakota and arrived in Lawrence around 8:30am. Rob, Mitch, and Jon all went to Jon’s place in Olathe, so we are temporarily away from them… but it appears we will rejoin them this afternoon in our target area around the Hutchinson-McPherson area.
A remnant cold front will continue to stall out over this area today. Pretty good heating will occur on both sides of the boundary and if any strong updrafts can remain rooted right on this boundary, then non-mesocyclone tornadoes can be possible if things pan out right. This would be the only hope at a tornado today. Several of the components necessary for these types of events will be in place today. Storms should be moving quite slowly, thus significant updrafts should have an easy time developing/feeding on mature storms. In fact, if a marginal or bonafide supercell develops today, it would likely move south or perhaps slightly west of due south… not unlike July 9, 2003 Reno-Kingman county non-mesocyclone tornado event. We’ll see how it plays out.
We’ll depart Lawrence probably around 1pm.