Significant snows expected for Yellowstone Friday & Saturday!
Well, hmmm. This first snowstorm of the season for the northern Rockies is really throwing a monkey-wrench into my itenerary — at least the first couple days of the trip. The significant Pacific storm is still on track, and now there are indications that a subtropical jet stream interaction may enhance precipitation and even start the event sooner. A snow event that evolves faster spells trouble for me, becuase the absolute earliest I could possibly make it to Mammoth Hot Springs would be early afternoon Friday. The new 13/00z run of the NAM model, which is notoriously fast and weaker with storms 3 days out, is certainly scaring me! It has 700mb temps falling quickly below 0°C over the Teton/Yellowstone region early Friday morning. This system is strong and cold, there are no two ways about it. The Riverton NWS office is really playing this one soft so far, according to their point&click forecast on the web earlier this afternoon. I think all locations of Yellowstone above 7000 feet will see any rain change over to snow early Friday (which is pretty much the entire park, except for the Gardner River valley in the far north-central portion of the park at Mammoth Hot Springs, Mammoth = approx 6400 feet), again if the NAM is anywhere close to representing what will happen.
In order to even make it to Mammoth I have to traverse the entire park from south to north, crossing at least a couple 8500+ passes. They will certainly be snow early Friday if the new NAM is right. This is just too close for comfort. I don’t think I’ll be able to make it before heavy snow ensues. Here are the scenarios playing in my mind right now… there’s 3 of them:
1) Original itenerary departure of early Friday morning, arrival Dubois, WY by mid-evening. Anticipation being snow-bound Saturday and essentially spend the day in Dubois with really nothing much to do. Snow-covered and even road closures look to be a pretty good bet. Spend a 2nd night at Dubois (Sat. Night), and assuming the storm ends Late Saturday, begin the drive west to Teton Sunday morning for snowscape photography. Late Sunday I’ll head into Yellowstone.
2) Depart immediately after work Thursday (after hopefully leaving early from work at 2pm), and drive non-stop, essentially, to Laramie. Stay at a cheap Motel 6 in Laramie for about 6 hours, then depart at 5 or 6am and make a beeline drive to Mammoth, arriving sometime early-mid afternoon. * This is my preferred scenario only if the expected heavy snow holds off until late afternoon or early evening.
3) I just thought about this one not too long ago, and I’m actually leaning more towards this scenario given the scare from the new NAM. Delay #1 scenario by one full day. Instead of leaving Dodge early Friday morning, I’ll leave Saturday morning… arriving in Dubois Saturday evening… then get up very early for morning snowy landscape photography at Grand Teton, given the storm is over by then and skies begin to clear. I really didn’t want to blow a day of my vacation (Friday), but by doing so, this would allow me to chase what looks to be a potentially great dryline supercell day in western Kansas very close to Dodge City, perhaps. Interesting, eh?!
Stay tuned…