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Farther South? Well, the 00z/28 model runs I think are finally beginning to catch on to the magnitude of the digging jet down the backside of this trough along the Pacific coast. When I was at work earlier Wednesday evening, I interrogated the GFS, NAM, and UKMET models against the RAOBs along the coast… especially Medford, OR and Oakland, CA… and all the models in the 6-12 hour forecast grossly underforecast the middle tropospheric jet streak by as much as 35 knots. At 550mb, the Medford, OR sounding had around 120kts before the wind data was lost because of limiting angles (wind speeds too strong). The NAM and the GFS both had about 75 to 80 knots at 550mb at Medford. Well, the 00z initialization was closer on the GFS model, with 105kt analyzed. The result? A more digging system. The storm will continue to dig well into northern Old Mexico/Southern New Mexico before carving out a significant upper low over West Texas. See the comparison in the 12z/27 and 00z/28 GFS model runs valid for 6pm Friday:
Model QPF amounts are staggering on the 00z/28 runs! The GFS below:
GFS model 60-hour QPF through Noon Sunday 12/31. Interpolating for Dodge City suggests a little over 3"!
Even the Canadian model QPF amounts are very impressive… and this model is usually a little less aggressive with significant QPF amounts, based on experience:
12hr ending 6am Fri ~ 16mm
…ending 6pm Fri ~ 11mm
…ending 6am Sat ~ 18mm
…ending 6pm Sat ~ 24mm
…ending 6am Sun ~ 4mm
equals storm total ~ 73mm or 2.87"!! for Dodge City
It is looking more and more like a historic December precipitation event for much of Southwest Kansas with widespread 2-3" precipitation…including a major snowstorm for parts of far Southwest Kansas…mainly west of Garden City and Scott City. Future model runs should help iron out the median rain/snow line for this event… but as it stands now… it appears to be largely a major cold rain event here in Dodge City still.