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High Plains Drifter

disclaimer:  "The meteorological views/forecast thinking expressed are those solely of the author of this blog
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"

February 22, 2007

Central Plains Winter Storm Feb 23-24 [3]

Filed under: Feb 23-24, 2007,General Weather & Forecasting — Mike U @ 7:11 am

An intense, fast-mover.  It appears all the major models have a decent handle on this storm now as we enter the 60-72 hour forecast window.  All the models suggest intense deep tropospheric cyclogenesis over Southwest Kansas early Saturday with the 500mb low bottoming out in the lower 530s.  I made a comparison graphic below, which shows the NAM and the UKMET the slowest solutions.  The ECMWF is still the fastest and farther north with the upper low track.  Regardless of which solution is favored, there will be a swath of intense winter precipitation and wind over a 6-12 hour time frame over portions of western Kansas.  

Comparison of 5 models of the 500mb low position at 6pm CST 2/24

The UKMET solution would favor intense snow and wind here in Dodge City with perhaps a few hours of near blizzard conditions if the snow accumulates enough.  Interstingly enough, the UKMET shows more QPF in the "wrap-around" comma head of the storm over western/northwestern KS than any of the other models.  The UKMET traditionally shows less QPF than any other model in just about any situation.  I would argue that the numerical models are going to struggle with QPF in such strong cyclogenesis during the day Saturday and there very well could be significant snow of 5 to 8" to go along with 40-50mph winds somewhere over the western 1/3 of Kansas by midnight Saturday night.

72hr UKMET 12-hr precipitation forecast valid 6pm CST 2/24

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