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High Plains Drifter

disclaimer:  "The meteorological views/forecast thinking expressed are those solely of the author of this blog
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"

February 23, 2007

Central Plains Winter Storm Feb 23-24 [4]

Filed under: Feb 23-24, 2007,General Weather & Forecasting — Mike U @ 12:33 am

1st Severe Thunderstorm Outbreak on the Plains Tomorrow Night!  I have modified the dates on my blog of this event from the 24-25 to 23-24 as the system will be fairly quick moving…and the fact that Friday night the 23rd looks more and more like a potential nasty night for widespread severe thunderstorms along the dryline and advancing cold front aloft.  Take a look at the 00z NAM forecast from tonight’s run below.  It’s the 500mb Heights and 250mb Isotachs showing the upper level jet streaks.  This is a classic Great Plains severe weather pattern given adequate moisture in the warm sector:

Northern branch of polar jet and subtropical jet will spread into the southern Plains by late afternoon into the early evening on 2/23

Below is the 24hr NAM forecast of 850mb relative humidity and wind vector.  Ordinarily in the warm season, low stratus is not much of concern in the warm sector east of the dryline… however being so early in the season (late February) the northward transport of high moisture content will likely result in a lot of low clouds given the cooler lower troposphere this time of year.  All the models suggest this, and is a big concern for "chaseable" severe storms on the dryline tomorrow:

24hr NAM forecast valid 6pm CST 2/23 indicating low clouds likely east of the dryline the afternoon of 2/23

Regardless, it appears the massive cold advection in the mid levels will overcome slight deficiencies in the lower troposphere especially after 6pm tomorrow — including portions of Southwest Kansas.  SPC Day 2 forecast had a "moderate risk" of severe storms from roughly Ness City, KS south along the dryline and points east into Oklahoma.  I will likely be working my first severe event of the season tomorrow in the Dodge City forecast area… should be interesting!  Next post will be about the latest on the possible blizzard behind this storm on Saturday!

27hr NAM forecast valid 9pm CST 2/23 showing surface wind vectors, CAPE (convective available potential energy), and 500mb Temperatures.

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