High Plains Drifter


disclaimer:  "The meteorological views/forecast thinking expressed are those solely of the author of this blog
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"

March 23, 2007

Chase Forecast March 23 [2]

Filed under: Chase Forecasts/Outlooks,Storm Chasing — Mike U @ 7:29 am

Target:  Akron, CO.  Interesting day today.  This is one of these really marginal days that could make me look like a fool if nothing happens…or a genius of something picturesque develops by early evening.  The big problem with northeastern CO today will be moisture.  Winds are light and out of the northwest currently (~8:30am CDT) over northeastern Colorado with dewpoints in the 30s… not exactly what you look for in your target area…however, all the models suggest winds will rapidly veer to the east-southeast by this afternoon.  The question is how fast the moisture can race back northwest to meet up with the strong forcing for ascent which the NAM and RUC certain suggest quite well between Denver and Akron or so by 00z.  It will be a late show.  I was briefly tempted at a secondary target near Clayton, NM, however, my gut just wasn’t feeling it…despite the better moisture.  Boundary layer temperatures per NAM and RUC show warmer temps up in the high plains of Colorado east of the front-range, so lapse rates will be steeper farther north it appears…which would compensate for moisture deficiencies and strong forcing for ascent to get a good storm to develop.  It seems there’s really no rules for Colorado convection… if you have upslope winds and insolation and just a little bit of juice, anything can happen.  Chasing farther north will put me in better position for tomorrow anyway, which looks more promising than today’s chase.

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