Well today is a chase day… we left Buffalo early this afternoon and headed just south of town where we currently sit just east of I-25 watching convection trying to bubble to our west and northwest. Deep layer shear of 40 knots supports supercell structures today. Dewpoints in the 48-51 degree range yield about 1100 to 1600 J/kg of CAPE, which is also enough for supercell structures… so we are hoping for more photogenic supercell structure this afternoon as storms organize and roll east and southeast off the Big Horn Mountains.
Plans for the remainder of the trip: On Thursday, Vince and I plan to drive north well into Montana tomorrow and more than likely drive way up towards Havre… we don’t plan on it being a full-blown chase endeavour, however a few storms may form along and north of the developing surface low. We do, however, plan on Friday being a fairly decent supercell day with great southwest flow aloft… classic wind shear environment for supercells with CAPE in the 2500 J/kg neighborhood…. we may actually end up as far north as the TransCanada Highway between Medicine Hat and Swift Current… about 70 miles north of the border. At least that is what the GFS model is suggesting right now… and we plan to be there. After that… Saturday and Sunday will be driving days back home… about 1200 miles or so 