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High Plains Drifter

disclaimer:  "The meteorological views/forecast thinking expressed are those solely of the author of this blog
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"

June 28, 2007

Late-June Chase Trip (Day 8): Leisure Day in Northeast WY, maybe some storms

Filed under: Chase Accounts,Chase Trip 2007,Storm Chasing — Mike U @ 3:54 pm

Well, Vince and I have decided that an exhaustive drive to Canada is probably not worth it.  Even though the NAM model is showing mid-upper 60s dewpoints in parts of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan with excellent shear and good forcing… the observations suggest that mid-upper 60s dewpoints are unlikely… which would make the drive worthwhile for some perhaps amazing supercell storms in that shear environment.  We think even with good pooling and convergence and evapotranspiration, that 60-63F dewpoints could be realized… but that’s a gamble… if the timing was different… such that my chase trip was longer, we’d probably head up there… however I have to be back to work Monday morning… so thus, we will not head up there.  I guess there’s still a 10% chance we change our mind and get up very very early in the morning (we plan to stay in Belle Fourche again tonight)… but as it stands now… we may very well begin the trip back home tomorrow (Friday 29th).  We’ll see.   For today, some storms may form in the mid 50s dewpoint air with 2000 to 2500 J/kg CAPE, but shear is really marginal… decent southeast surface winds, but mid-upper winds of 10-15kts or so probably won’t cut it for decent organized storms.  We’ll see what happens though, if something perks our interest later this evening, we’ll chase it if it’s close enough.

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