Thursday evening 11/29 update. Not a whole lot has changed in the model data today actually. It still looks like it will be too warm for significant freezing rain, except for north central and northeastern portions of Kansas. In the DDC NWS forecast area, this would most likely be the Hays-Wakeeney areas. The day shift 
issued a winter storm watch to include as far south as Dodge City. The surface temperature will have to be a little bit colder than any of the models are suggesting at this point for any freezing precipitation in Dodge, but it has happened many, many times (surface temps colder than any of the 36-48hr progs suggesting). I’ve included a couple of interesting graphics showing the model depiction of the low level warm air advection with this strong storm. It is about as impressive of warm air advection as I’ve seen here in the western Plains given the combination of tight temperature gradient + wind magnitude. The first image (Img 1) is a 30-hour progression of the 850mb pattern (temperature, wind, and height) showing the modified arctic boundary retreating northward on southwest 850mb of 50-60 knots! In the next image (Img 2), I show the NAM model surface forecast from this morning’s run with temperature, wind, and sea level pressure. I annotated the front on this image, denoted in the solid red
(warm front) and red-blue alternate (stationary front). I also depicted a sort of "secondary" downslope front in a lighter red shading. I think in this airmass, temperatures will get very mild with very strong winds expected amidst deep mixing. In Img 2, I annotated in dotted line roughly the 32°F as forecast by this morning’s NAM model. You can see that the NAM only shows surface freezing temperatures only as far south as about I-70 — with about 35°F or so in Dodge City between midnight and 6am. Five degrees colder, and of course there could be some problems if there is significant enough precipitation (hence the Winter Storm Watch).
High Wind Warning Criteria? Then there is the wind aspect of this storm on Saturday. Significant cyclogenesis is expected across eastern Colorado on Saturday with a surface low perhaps as deep as 988mb! The pressure/height gradient up to 700mb will be very tight with 50-70 knots expected from 800-650mb or so. As mentioned previously, the locations that get into the "downslope" airmass across far 
Southwest Kansas in particular, will be susceptible to perhaps 60mph wind gusts! The third image in this post (Img 3) depicts the GFS forecast 750mb Wind. The wind speed on the graphic is in knots. I also overlayed the surface wind on top of the 750mb to get an idea of directional vertical wind shear. This is important for sufficient "mechanical" mixing. The less the directional wind shear across the layer, the easier it is for mixing of momentum in the layer, given steep adiabatic (or nearly adiabatic) lapse rates. Across far Southwest Kansas, the surface wind will likely be veered enough with very little directional shear to 750mb (the area depicted west and south of the dotted red line in Img 3). Thus, it would be easy for the atmosphere to mix down those 750mb winds in gusts at the surface. 750mb wind speed forecasts for Saturday afternoon are in the 55-60 knot range! We may be looking at some high wind warning criteria winds across portions of Southwest Kansas Saturday afternoon. More later. -Mike U