High Plains Drifter

Monday-Monday Night looks quite interesting now!  Wow, the GFS and Canadian 00z model runs this evening paint a rosy picture for winter storm fanatics like myself!  The upper level wave formerly referred to as "wave #3" in my previous posts will likely infuse an exorbitant amount ofGulf Moisture with low level trajectories favorable for significant western Plains precipitation.  A "kicker" jet-streak digging down the backside (what I guess would call wave #4) will eject the primary storm northeastward in a highly energetic fashion — according to the 84 hour forecast of the latest Canadian and GFS models.  12-hr precipitation accumulation from both models peg a 1.25 to 1.50" max during the 6pm Mon to 6am Tues time frame (see Img 1).  The Canadian is farther west, with this maximum occurring between Dodge City and Wichita, whereas the GFS has a narrower corridor of significant precipitation through central Oklahoma.  Precipitation type will be a huge dilemna, as it would certainly appear that a warm layer aloft would advect northward overtop the shallow cold airmass.  There could be significant sleet and/or freezing rain around portions of Southwest Kansas Monday night.