To be (colder than 32°) or not to be… that is the $million question… literally! I just compared our evening Dodge City sounding with the 6-hr forecast of both the NAM and the GFS. Not good in the boundary layer. In a shallow near-surface layer, both the GFS and NAM are some 5°C too warm (see Img 1)… up to about 2,500ft off the ground. This is so very critical. The GFS is showing a nearly constant 33°F here in Dodge City from late afternoon through the night tomorrow night and into the first part of Tuesday before a secondary cold front pushes through.
The GFS now shows a 1.0 to 1.5" storm total QPF for around here in Dodge City with 2"+ just to the east and southeast of Dodge City. This matches up nicely with the persistent QPF forecast from the Canadian model and its ensemble. It’s a matter of only a few degrees….between plain cold rain….and potentially catastrophic ice accumulation… with all sorts of power outages and trees downed.