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High Plains Drifter

disclaimer:  "The meteorological views/forecast thinking expressed are those solely of the author of this blog
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"

May 6, 2008

Chase Forecast May 6, 2008

Filed under: Chase Forecasts/Outlooks,Storm Chasing — Mike U @ 8:30 am

Likely targeting western KS

Today is my day off, so I plan to chase.  I have really been waffling between two areas of interest:  The more consensus TX Panhandle choice or western KS.  I think I am going to target western KS.  The reason I like the looks of DDC-GLD CWA border region of western KS is 1) a band of increased 250-300mb flow in this area around 70-80kts (despite the more anemic ~500mb winds of 30-40 knots or so)… and 2) the roughly 0-2km lower tropospheric convergence looks pretty darn good late this afternoon/early evening across western/northwestern KS — a lot better than what I’m seeing progged across the TX Panhandle.  The NAM has shown a very persistent "convective QPF bomb" signal at the nose of the 850mb speed max that sets up from, say, Tribune northeastward to Wakeeney…then continuing northeast to Stockton-Osborne by the 03-06z time frame.  Dewpoints in the 60-62F territory may be realized up in this target as convergence increases later on.  And lastly 3) it’s the "secondary" target as all the "hordes" will be in West TX.  Will continue to monitor.  I can sit here until Noon in-case TX PH starts calling my name again.. but as it stands now, I think I’ll be heading NW or WNW from DDC instead of SW.

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