High Plains Drifter


disclaimer:  "The meteorological views/forecast thinking expressed are those solely of the author of this blog
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"

November 10, 2008

A November chase close to home?!?

I am really intrigued by the meteorological setup across the far southwest Kansas/western OK Panhandle/extreme northeast NM corridor for later this afternoon.  An intense, yet compact (important!) mid level potential vorticity (PV) anomaly will eject northeast out of New Mexico by midday and become centered across the area mentioned in the first sentence.  This setup has some similarities to the 26 October 2006 setup, although probably not as intense.  Nevertheless, there is the possibility for interesting low-topped, intense convection near the nose of the mid level vort max/PV anomaly where low level convergence/frontogenesis will be extremely favored.  A narrow corridor of 45 to 50°F dewpoint air at the surface may extend northwest as far as Guymon, OK or even points west of there, sneaking into an area with ~ -21°C temps at 500mb.  Since this isn’t all that far from Dodge, I will try to chase this setup and see what I can come up with.  Just the thought of possibly seeing a brief "cold core" setup tornado in November is enough for me to get out the door, however small that probability may be.  I look at the short-term RUC forecast and have visions of 26 October 2006 running in my mind.  This would be a low CAPE event, with forecast CAPE on the order of 300 to 500 J/kg in a narrow corridor, but that is enough convective instability given the degree of focused, intense ascent from this small system at the nose of the mid-level PV anomaly.  Below is a 9-hour RUC forecast:

 

2 Comments »

  1. how was that TOR near johnson city…i know that had to be you. cannot wait for the pics and congrats on your promotion!!

    Comment by Blaseman — November 10, 2008 @ 4:25 pm

  2. Come on Mike, post the pics! We want to see what that badboy looks like…and congrats today!

    Comment by Dick — November 10, 2008 @ 7:31 pm

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