Here is a 15z Surface plot with some subjective analysis of the temperature and dewpoint fields. Subjective surface vertical vorticity max is encircled. The short-term RUC and NAM suggest the surface vorticity max will strengthen and perhaps drift north through 21z…thus would expect moist advection to continue northwestward into the Wichita-Kingman area. If I was off work today, I would be driving toward Kingman right now (although I probably would have left at 11am!). Visible satellite, not shown, does reveal a very promising pristine sky in this area, so direct insolation will only aid in increasing low level lapse rates (decreasing static stability) to help spin-up the surface cyclone even more across south-central Kansas.
I wish you could join us out in the field, today, Mike. I’ll be thinking about you as I race towards Mother Nature’s Wrath… Thanks, again.
Comment by Lance F. — April 9, 2009 @ 10:47 am
Good luck Lance! I just want to see my forecast verify. Kingman to Wichita still looks interesting to me between 330 and 530pm this evening
Comment by Mike U — April 9, 2009 @ 11:00 am