Below is a visible satellite image as of 1930z. I am NOT a fan of all the mid level cloud that has developed over my target area in the zone of maximum surface vorticity at the nose of the west-northwest surge in dewpoints toward south-central KS. I’m not sure what to make of this. The nose of surface heating is displaced south of the moist axis by a fair distance, which is something I’m also not a fan of. I remember at this time of the day both on 10 November 2008 and 26 October 2006, there was NOT a large area of mid level cloud that spontaneously developed across my target with the best heating displaced south. I expected a surge in warm air northward toward Kingman-Wichita, but it is not happening. 19z obs show 70 at Alva, 71 at Medicine Lodge, and 73 at Wichita. The best warm surge is south of ICT across far north-central OK…thus am now thinking that the western limit of tornadic storms may be I-35 south of Wichita, perhaps. If I was in Kingman right now (like I probably would be at this time), I would seriously be considering heading southeast toward I-35 corridor down into Sumner County. This isn’t an easy virtual chase, and is not as "obvious" to me all of a sudden as I thought it may be like 10 November 2008 and 26 October 2006. No two "cold core" events are the same, that’s for sure, which is why it is a dangerous game to use comparisons to historical events like I do, LOL! History never repeats itself, but it does like to follow a rhythmic beat, which is why I think conceptual models and events of the past are helpful in forecasting. If this event busts, it isn’t the first time and certainly won’t be the last! That being said, it is still 20z at the time of this writing, so a lot can happen between now and 00z. In fact, I’m interested in the cyclonically rotating echoes on the DDC and ICT radars south of Pratt. There’s a 45 dewpoint in Pratt at 20z, so who knows. There could be a fluke brief tornado in Kiowa or Pratt counties since it’s so cold at 500mb.
