High Plains Drifter

Photo from outside my front door around 8:20pm CST:

. . . 4.4" in my backyard on the north side of Dodge . . .

Looking at radar, the vort max (or at least one of the smaller-scale vorts associated with the storm) was very near Hugoton.  There continues to be development to the southwest of Dodge City, so there is still opportunity to hit 6 or maybe 7" before all is said and done with this thing.  I’ll try to snap a quick grab photo out my front door.  Below is a radar image from Dodge City radar at around 8:00pm:

South wind and snow.  The most interesting aspect of this storm is the wind direction.  A south-southeast wind direction is uncommon for significant accumulating snows in Southwest Kansas.  In fact, the winds have gusted at times to 25 mph, creating drifts in not-so common areas.  Strong winds with snow in the high plains are almost always out of the north.  Below is a surface map valid 4pm CST 1/20:

Blue dotted line is approximate Snow-"mix" line.  Green line is roughly the "mix"-cold rain line. 
This storm has been a bust for Oklahoma City, where they were originally expecting 4-8" of snow.  They really haven’t seen a flake yet… mainly sleet and cold rain.  I’m glad I’m not down there for this storm!  This was a very difficult storm to predict, once again, for precipitation type in Oklahoma.

. . . 3.0" in north Dodge City . . .

It’s halftime in the KU-Texas Tech basketball game, and I went out to measure… it’s right at 3 inches in my backyard.  We had a nice little burst that added about 1/2 to 1" early this afternoon… but it has since let up.  We are pretty much in the 500-400mb dry intrusion of this storm now, and the rest of the snow will be somewhat convective in nature (probably no thunder though)… so the snow will be more showery and hit-miss.  Will be watching the the healthy organized band in the TX Panhandle near the center of the mid level low…as this pivots northeastward and perhaps catches Dodge City.  A total in the 4 to 7" range seems plausible… 4" if we catch more holes… 7" if we hit more of the smaller bands and whatnot. 

Finally… the first 1" snow event in Dodge City…more on the way!  At work here, we have measured 1.5" as of 10:00am.  It started snowing around 5:30am, so we are averaging between one quarter and one half inch of snow per hour.  Looking at water vapor loop, the main upper low is still centered over southern New Mexico…and I expect us to be in ~0.5" per hour snowfall rates for much of the afternoon and this evening…. ending up with between 5 and 8" of total snow by early Sunday morning!  Will keep you posted…

NAM model suggests 4-6" possible in Dodge City… we shall see.  Below are a couple graphics from the NAM model from the 00z/20th run (6pm CST 1/19).  

NAM model showing the northeastward ejection of a fairly compact upper low.  An optimal track for Dodge City to receive the brunt of the upward forcing for heavy snow would be very close to what this model is projecting in it’s 18 to 30 hour forecast. 

Here is the QPF (quantative precip forecast) off the same NAM model… a 48-hour storm total.  It is showing the 0.50" line north of Dodge City with the 0.75" inch line getting close to here.  A standard 1:10 ratio would mean 5 to 8" of snow.  

I still think the heaviest snow will be just southeast of Dodge City, but the slower movement of the storm is promising for longer duration of lift over Dodge City.  One thing seems fairly certain though, and that is precip type.  I am about 94% certain this will be all snow for us in Dodge City!  What little warm layer aloft there is… will be evaporatively cooled to below zero at the onset of the precipitation…and will remain below 0°C for the duration of the snow.  I am working a rare 4am to Noon overtime shift tomorrow, so that will be fun… I’ll have my camera with me at work to take a few snaps… of what should finally be the first adequate accumulating snow here in Dodge!

The first 1" snow event for Dodge City finally?!? 

This has been a fairly awesome winter so far with a number of strong winter storms tracking across the central and southern Great Plains.  Most interesting, though, is that here in Dodge City, the total accumulation of snowfall from all these storms dating back to November 30th has been a whopping 1.3"!

The Dodge City Misses:

November 30th storm = 0.4" 
(parts of northern OK, southeastern KS, central MO received 12-18")

December 20-21st storm = 0.1" 
(the big Denver Blizzard with 20-30" of snow out there… rain and freezing rain in Dodge)

December 29-31st storm = 0.3" 
(the "Extreme Winter Storm" on the High Plains… major ice with major blizzard of 15-30" snow amounts in far western KS and southeastern CO)

January 13-14th storm = 0.4" 
(major sleet accumulations to the east and southeast of Dodge City… see map below)

. . .Another Winter Weather Disaster in the Making. . .

Okay, I have to blog about this storm… even though it’s really not affecting Southwest KS much at all other than prolonged light flurries.  Springfield, MO and surrounding parts are in trouble.. with a capital "T".  They have already accumulated 1 to 1.5" of ice… and another big round is expected on Sunday the 15th. 

This storm is one of the most interesting winter storms, from a meteorological standpoint.  There was a huge area of sleet in southern Kansas and most of Oklahoma with this thing so far (the 12th-13th).  I don’t have time to post a graphic… but the Norman and Springfield soundings are just fantastic with an incredible warm layer aloft with an awesome near-surface cold layer.  The cold layer was so cold (yet quite shallow), that rain was re-freezing as sleet just before hitting the ground… this has actually saved Oklahoma City from disastrous results to the likes of what Springfield, MO are experiencing.  Here are some of the more eerie Local Storm Reports from around the Springfield area so far:

1213 PM     ICE STORM        MONETT                  36.92N 93.93W  
01/13/2007                   BARRY              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER  
  
 THE CITY OF MONETT HAS EXPERIENCED MAJOR ICE DAMAGE. CITY  
 WIDE POWER OUTAGES. SOME TREES ARE FALLING OVER FROM THE  
 ROOTS DUE TO SOFT GROUND FROM THE RAINFALL.  

1214 AM     ICE STORM        5 NE WILLARD            37.36N 93.36W  
01/14/2007                   GREENE             MO   NWS EMPLOYEE  
  
 CATOSTROPHIC TREE DAMAGE. IN WOODED AREAS...TREES AND  
 TREE LIMBS ARE CRACKING AT A HIGH RATE. MANY HOMES  
 WITHOUT POWER. FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUED THROUGH THE  
 EVENING. ICE ACCUMULATION ABOUT AN INCH TO INCH AND A  
 HALF.