High Plains Drifter

…Potentially major, long duration blizzard to affect portions of Kansas and Nebraska!…

I decided to blog about this event since there will likely be impacts in Dodge City…including at least 3-6 hours of blizzard (or at least near-blizzard) conditions.  I am working 10pm to 6am forecast shifts right now at WFO Dodge City — my last one being Wednesday morning.  This is going to be a very, very close call for Dodge City regarding major blizzard impacts.  It is still 60 to 72 hours from the major impacts from this storm, so there is plenty of time for models to change…but there is now VERY solid agreement among the major models regarding this storm… which will be a TRUE blizzard…for a good portion of the Central Plains.  Below are a few charts to start off this meteorological documentation of this event:

Water vapor image showing the mid level moist and dry regions that correspond to areas of lift and subsidence.  Black arrows denote the upper level jet cores.  I highlighted the subjectively analyzed Potential Vorticity (PV) stream in red.  This is the making of the storm.  This PV stream will continue to dig south-southeast…reaching a base somewhere over Arizona tomorrow, December 22nd.  Cyclogenesis will then begin as the mid level jet streak rounds the base of the carved out trough.

Here is a sample of some of the major model predictions on what to do with the mid level vorticity and height pattern once the PV stream reaches its southernmost point.  Timing is still a huge issue, and history has taught us High Plains winter forecasters that “slower and deeper” is the way to go.  Right now, that would be the UKMET model.  It is farthest southwest with the main PV and 500mb low center valid 00z Thursday Dec 24.

And then there was the wind.  The ECMWF and UKMET models are depicted here valid 12z Thursday Christmas Eve morning.  A ~998mb low vs. a 1034mb high from the southeast Plains to the far northern High Plains is a classic SLP pattern for western Plains blizzards historically.  The yellow dot on the two charts above denote Dodge City — firmly in the SLP gradient at this valid time.

More later.  I go into work at 10pm, and while I am at work I will not blog since I have to do my professional forecasting of this event for the 27 counties of Southwest Kansas we are responsible for.  Next update will likely be early in the morning or perhaps one more before I go into work this evening.  -Mike U