I am expecting 3-6″ here in Dodge City. Currently, it is 30°F and foggy in Dodge City as of Noon. Well, this is my second attempt at this post, so this will be brief. Numerical models are really struggling with the phasing of the southern stream storm and a second northern stream system dropping south out of Canada into the Rockies in the 60-84 hr time frame. This all has impacts on the mid level and low level cyclogenesis and tracks of the lows. Let’s look at some REAL DATA though. Here is the surface chart as of 11am:
The dashed line in the image above is the subjectively analyzed axis of surface vorticity and baroclinicity. This is where the surface low will form and track as the upper system approaches tonight and tomorrow. A West Texas through Childress, TX through Central OK track is ideal for decent snow in Dodge City. This is promising! Below is the water vapor image from late this morning:
The southernmost PV anomaly (denoted in yellow X) will take a track close to the white arrow. This PV track is also favorable for accumulating snow in Southwest Kansas including Dodge City. I’ll write more later this afternoon. -Mike U
Hey Mike- Did you read my co-authored snow paper in the last NWA Digest? We did a snowfall climatology of TX and identified several patterns…but you already know all of it I’m sure.
Comment by Stacie — December 22, 2009 @ 10:37 pm