Saturday evening model runs are in. No huge surprises with this run actually. Getting into the day Monday is where the NAM begins to diverge from the slower GFS/Canadian solution. Slower solution pretty much = more snow for here in Dodge City, as I mentioned in the previous post. Here is the 48hr fcst from the Canadian 00z run valid 6pm Monday evening:
This canadian run is actually fairly consistent with the placement and timing of things from the 84hr fcst valid the same time that I posted yesterday. It continues to show a near 1″ 12-hr QPF bullseye near the track of the 700mb low. The “bullseye” in the QPF field is a bit farther northeast than the 84hr forecast, however this is what we call “white noise” in the model details. The main signal of interest is that there will likely be a 1″ QPF hit in a 12-hr period during the day Monday along and immediately north of the 700mb track. The Canadian model is very similar in placement of the 700mb almost along the OK/KS border near Medicine Lodge at 21/00z (6pm Monday). The 00z run of the GFS and the NAM show a rapid cooling of the 800-700mb warm layer from 06z to 12z Monday morning changing any rain over to heavy snow by sunrise or shortly before. When the precip changes over to snow in SW KS near Dodge City, there may in fact be some thunderstorms involved. I haven’t experienced a thundersnow since 1993. This would be a real treat!
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