High Plains Drifter

West to east flow aloft and southerly flow in the low levels… directional shear is very good for storm organization/supercells as far south as southeast Colorado… with mode more than likely on HP side of things. Mid level flow is better farther north into northeastern Colorado and adjacent southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas. I think there is going to be adequate moisture across all of eastern Colorado into far southwest Nebraska for decent storms. Given the not-so-hot 700mb temps, 8-10C and adequate insolation farther north, I think storms will form… with perhaps the Palmer Divide initiating stuff. Other storms may also form in a weak convergent area farther northeast from Wray/Yuma to Imperial, NE. I think there will be a larger area of possible severe storms than what the SPC guidance suggests. That being said, I will target farther south closer to home where better low level convergence and moisture signal is in the model fields… initiation of storms far eastern Las Animas County or western Baca County. I think I’ll head to Lamar and re-evaluate from there… as I don’t want to totally rule out chasing a Palmer Divide initiated storm… which would probably roll east along I-70 corridor during the 23z to 02z time frame. I’m about 75%/25% in favor of farther south (Baca County) target vs. Palmer Divide (Limon, Genoa, Arriba, etc. along I-70) at this point