High Plains Drifter

Morning of the first chase day at Evan’s house.  We are planning on chasing in Central Kansas at the nose of the southern upper level jet streak… so we are blowing off the moderate risk in Iowa and Minnesota despite the 10% tornado contour and hatched area.  Evan and I think that Central Kansas is a good target where southerly low level winds will converge nicely along the stalling out front.  This target will also have stronger upper level flow…where the Iowa target has a significant upper level wind weakness.  We think Iowa will see a lot of storms, mostly of the HP variety.  Tornadoes will most likely be of poor contrast and perhaps mostly wrapped in rain and probably not all that long-lived.  They don’t usually make for good photography.  The Central KS target will see the greater probability of “cleaner” storms, more isolated, and less of a propensity of being HP.  There is a lower tornado risk here, but that’s the sacrifice for playing this “wildcard” target.  We plan to be in Salina by mid-afternoon.