Here is a map of my forecast of the event…a "best guess" of the corridors of primary precipitation types. We’ll see how close this comes to verifying.
What is interesting to note is that the actual surface temperatures are just a little bit cooler through midnight per some of the short-fuse RUC forecasts. Below is an indication of this with a comparison of a 06z (midnight CST on 12/19) RUC surface temperature analysis compared to the 3-hour forecast valid the same time (from the 03z run). Note the greatest discrepency over West Texas and the TX-OK Panhandles… I think this kind of interrogation is important because all it takes is only a couple degrees to turn an ordinary cold rain event into something much more significant with regards to icing in areas like Dodge City.
