High Plains Drifter

7:30am cdt. I am still absolutely torn 50/50 between two targets:
Northeast Colorado vs. Central/Northeast Nebraska. Both locations
will have excellent shear — both will have very good if not excellent
moisture/instability. I was leaning Central/Northeast Nebraska when I
woke up a couple hours ago, but now I am back to 50/50. I think what
I will do is drive to Wakeeney and make the decision there at about
9:30 to 10:00am or so after assessing the new 12z NAM model. The main
question regarding the Colorado target is how far west the good
moisture can make it prior to 03z. Surface obs are showing mid 60s
dewpoints at both burlington, CO and goodland, KS… with a 68
dewpoint at Imperial, NE! Granted, the cold front will continue to
shove this moisture south, but by midday, the winds will become
easterly again — pulling this good moisture back into northeast
Colorado. I think the 00z to 03z time frame…right around sunset
especially… could be very rewarding somewhere northeast of Limon.
That looks really tempting. I think this is a conditional play,
though. Colorado chasing is such a wildcard many times. The
Central/Northeast Nebraska target is a bit more confident — regarding
substantial severe storms along the stalling out front. Questions
here center around the photographic nature of the storms. Given upper
60s to near 70 dewpoints, will the storms in eastern Nebraska be very
photogenic? I am a photographer, so I seek high contrast and good
visibility — hence my love for Colorado storms! I’ll leave for
Wakeeney, KS here shortly after 8am.