Well a deeper, slower system is now deep and slow enough for me to at least give this one a shot despite having to be back to DDC in time for my next mid shift. The target is SLN to CNK right near the sfc bomb. I expect initiation not too long after 18z. A lot of sunshine in the dry intrusion right now… allowing potential instability to build to a premium in central KS. Yeesh. If there’s going to be an cyclic supercells then storms will have to develop along a northwest to southeast arc in NC KS… I believe this might happen…say from just west of CNK down to north or northeast of ICT. Pick your storm… there should be plenty of them… I anticipate getting on a healthy storm by 2pm… “riding the wave” for about 3 hours before I need to turn around and come back home. Hopefully something productive can occur in this 3 hour window 
Good luck to all…
Mike U
A classic mid latitude cyclone is moving across Kansas today. This appears to be shaping up to be a setup very similar to work done by Jon Davies regarding tornadoes near the 500mb low/potential vorticity max coincident with the cold-pool aloft. Here is a forecast I posted to a storm chasing forecast discussion group regarding today’s virtual chase target:
WV loop mid-morning shows nice mid level drying working into western
KS. You can see the subsidence/lift couplet near the mid level PV max
on the water vapor loop pushing east at a fairly healthy clip. I think
initiation by 17-18z in an area north of I-70 east of HLC...with the
first storm(s) evolving into supercells by 18-19z with first tor report
maybe by this time? Looking at the DDC short-fuse composite
(weather.gov/ddc/shortfuse/shortfuse.php) a nice persistence moisture
flux convergence max betw HLC and HYS with nose of steepening low level
lapse rate and theta-E/CAPE working up into this area as well. I'd like
to be near Smith Center KS around 18z if I could be out. This event
does have components of the cold-core pattern with the 995 sfc low/sfc
wind vertical vorticity max positioned very close to the H5 PV max and
cold pocket of -20 to -22ish. I guess you could call it a hybrid...
maybe somewhat similar to April 10th last year or even March 27th
Kinsley KS event in 2004. After 20z, the whole warm sector should light
up, but I don't usually like being directly under the H5/3 jet core
which should be flying through most of KS today/Nrn OK. So, I'd either
stay along the KS/Neb line near the cyclone occlusion or farther south
in the southern half of OK. Good luck to all out today, I'm jealous!
With compact mid level lows like this one today, I like targeting the area very close to the mid level potential vorticity max. This is usually marked by the darkest “dry spot” on a water vapor image. This is an area of strong subsidence in a maturing cyclone that contains some air from the stratosphere which contains a lot of “potential vorticity”. Just downwind of this PV max (northeast in a northeasterly moving cyclone) is where the best lower tropospheric “response” will be , where frontogenesis is usually maximized and lift is strongest. When there is potential instability involved (usually diagnosed by CAPE fields or theta-E ridges at the surface) near this area, then this potential instability is released vigorously along with the extra deep lifting from all the other “dynamics” involved. To make a long story short, “low-topped” supercells are favored in these areas. Today, between 18z and 20z, the “sweet spot” for all this appears to be setting up in far north-central KS for these kind of storms. Tornadoes usually occur in this area. So, I’d be favoring strongly the Smith Center to Mankato KS area to Osborne to Beloit around this time if I could chase.
It seems like every other year or so, there’s a marginal opportunity to get out and chase…
to more or less test out the new equipment for the new chase season…and just get out and observe a convective sky after a long boring winter. Especially this winter…a winter that has been so bone dry, but really not all that cold. Low level moisture will be advecting northward overnight tonight through west TX, getting into W KS tomorrow.
It’s not much moisture, granted…
as it’s early March, but with cold temps aloft this time of year, it doesn’t take much to get some potential instability… the NAM shows CAPE’s of 700 to near 1000 J/kg by late afternoon Saturday 4th with some modest dryline convergence from Liberal to Scott City. So, I’ll watch this closely tomorrow morning and get the camera gear in “standby” mode just in case. I work midnight shift tomorrow evening, so I do have about a 3 hour leash.
Jay and I left Salina by mid morning and met up with Matt Crowther in York around noon, then continued our merry way through central and northern Nebraska… arriving in the Black Hills by mid evening. During the drive we noticed the incredibly lush landscape with all the recent rains in Nebraska. The hills are very green and picturesque right now. On the drive along I-90 to Rapid City we observed some convection developing to our west and northwest with one, perhaps small marginal supercell to our northwest in NW SD somewhere. Another small storm went just south of us as we were driving east, which revealed a brilliant rainbow as we got just west of it. I got some decent stills as we were driving along I-90. These were some very picturesque storms which was a pleasant surprise on a non-chase day!
This morning we are in Spearfish with a target northwest of here in far southeastern MT near Ekalaka, perhaps. It looks like a good day for storm structure, I can’t wait! Jay and I will be chasing with Matt C for the next week or so.
Mike U
This morning is June 3rd, the day of my friend David’s wedding here in Johnson County, KS. It is scheduled to be an outdoor wedding in Leawood at 6:30 this evening, however, the weather may promote things to "Plan B"… there is a large MCS engulfing eastern KS as I speak. It may very well clear out here by early afternoon, and all will be well. We shall see.
Then tomorrow, Saturday the 4th, chasing begins. I will leave for Lawrence and meet up with Jay and we will set out in his RAV4. We were originally going to take my new 2003 Jeep Liberty, however it is sitting in Clayton, NM at this time awaiting significant repairs. To make a long story short here, I collided with a large rock on a county road in mesa country somewhere between Springer and Clayton, which caused a lot of mechanical damage with a busted transfer case, front differential is messed up, and a damaged oil pan. I probably won’t see my Jeep, fully fixed, until at least a week and a half as it will be repaired in Clayton at Brad’s Auto Service. My insurance is taking care of me though, since the damages will most certainly exceed 2 or 3 grand.
I’m excited about the chase trip. I think the pattern will certainly support days on end of chaseable supercell thunderstorms across the high plains and northern plains. Saturday’s chase target, initially, looks like somewhere close to home!! Emporia, KS?? We shall see… but I invite all my friend and fam to keep tabs with the goings-on of the trip through my Blog as I will try to keep it updated daily with the day’s accounts and some photography.
Mike
Today is a chase day. I will be leaving Dodge City shortly, heading north to an area from Colby, KS to McCook, NE. Low level moisture will be lacking for tornadoes, it appears, however with a strong upper level disturbance moving into the high plains, good convergence and adequate instability and shear should support a decent supercell or two. I will be in search of "tail-end Charlie", a term storm chasers like to coin for the "end-of-the-line" southernmost storm that usually has the best environment to be a sustained longer-lived supercell. We’ll see what happens… at this point, it looks like tail-end Charlie will be vey near the NE/KS border… *maybe* as far south as I-70, but we’ll see. I don’t like the heavy cirro-stratus sheild moving into western KS at this time… but by 5pm, I think this will be less of a problem. -Mu
Welp, the first significant chase event of the spring season will commence this weekend. I am off work May 7-9, so I am free to roam the plains. This weekend chasing situation is one where there will probably be a widespread "target" for chaseable supercell thunderstorms from South Dakota to North Texas. The entire dryline from Nebraska down into West TX is vulnerable to good storms with widespread high amounts of instability and low level moisture, along with deep layer shear and subtle cold advection in the mid levels.
In this situation, It may be best to chase closest to home, which I may very well end up doing. I am very leery chasing eastern TX Panhandle and Western OK on Saturday given the congruence of a number of things that could make it a "zoo" of chasers out there…. It’s May 7th, It’s a Saturday, It’s the first good chase day in a long time, It marks the beginning of many storm chasers’ "chasecations". I have visions of "Sitka" in my mind, and this isn’t even Memorial Day Weekend! Thankfully, there will be the large area of potential supercell thunderstorms, so the "hordes" should be dispersed.
The slow moving upper trough will allow the the front/dryline to slugishly move eastward such that Sunday’s convective activity will probably fire from Northwest Iowa south through eastern KS… down into N. Texas. I really like the looks of North Texas, but this is quite a haul from Dodge City, althought it *may* be worth it.
I just try to avoid Oklahoma at all costs during the peak of storm chase season (roughly the 1st week of May through the 1st week of June)…. I’m hoping for a locally enhanced area in NW KS or something ahead of the trough… I can simply never go wrong, many times, chasing in my home state. -Mu
