Time, 3:30 PM. The idea is to head south west toward rain showers in the western Oklahoma panhandle out towards Clayton, and I hope it is for some artsy fartsy images around sunset with these showers. I will stay in Clayton tonight, more than likely.
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update: aborting chase, west winds have totally overwhelmed southwest and now south central KS… this is what I get for waking up at noon and not spending time to actually forecast… and making a knee-jerk reaction to mid-day analysis.. towers are forming just northwest of Wichita, and by the time I reach them, it will likely be 6pm and near Topeka.. plus, I left my hiking shoes at home… I’m going to turn around and go back home, get my hiking shoes and then set off for Palo Duro or Caprock Canyons SP and maybe do some hiking tomorrow. Plus, there’s some convective showers developing in the northern Panhandles, so there might be something to photograph on my way down there
It’s a chase day! …close to home. There is a small remnant convergence area developing southwest of Dodge City with some growing cumulus clouds around Coldwater. There is some small CAPE developing and I noticed a Cb already forming in the distant northeast when I came back from getting my new tire put on on the Jeep. I will load things back up and set out for Coldwater… and see what happens. Cold air aloft, so there should be a storm to photograph.
I am currently dealing with a flat tire, north west of Salina. Fortunately, I am on a paved Road. So, I will have to change out the flat after this storm passes by me because I will not have enough time before it hits. So, it will be a bumpy ride here for the next half hour to 45 minutes or however long it takes for the storm to move through. The joys of storm chasing. More later.
[ Transcribed by MyCaption ]
Time, 9:05 PM. As you can see, I finally got storms developing. Severe storms along a line. Even though it’s a line, the structure is pretty good with abundant lightning. Pretty good. I will follow this at least for the next hour, and we’ll see where it goes after that. More later.
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Time 7:15pm. Well it would certainly appear that I have screwed the
pooch on this day. There appears to be a nice developing supercell
northeast of Concordia near the NE/KS border…which is where most
storm chasers targeted. Me, I like to be a little risky, and playing
south was a risky move, but it didn’t look overly “hot” in the mid
levels and as such, thought at least one storm would develop along the
dryline. Well, what ended up developing along the dryline was a bunch
of high-based virga. More damn virga. Sometimes a decent storm can
be born from initially a field of virga showers… but that’s usually
a High Plains thing. At any rate, I’ll wander about Hwy 156 corridor
between Ellsworth and Great Bend until it’s obvious I’ve really messed
this one up… at sundown.
Western plains storm outlook is bleak for remainder of my vacation. While I’m sitting here on a farm road in Stafford County, KS waiting for storms to develop this far south… if they do… I might as well give an update on my thoughts for the remainder of my vacation. With the mean longwave trough axis slowly shifting from the central plains into the eastern states… moisture will be essentially non-existent on the western plains from southwest TX points north through the western Nebraska. That said, there may be an outside chance at chaseable convection in the very cold air aloft environment if surface winds can converge near small scale surface lows. The GFS has been hinting at that either sunday, monday, or tuesday… but even this is a total longshot at best. I will most likely head back to Dodge following this chase today, since I’m not all that far from home. I will then re-evaluate my next move tomorrow (Friday) morning. I may head out to New Mexico again or something and do some hiking and/or landscape photography perhaps. Or I just may stay home on my remaining vacation days and get caught up on some things around the house, etc.
I had contemplated the idea of chasing in Iowa tomorrow, but I don’t like the idea of storms racing northeast at 50+ mph within the jet core. the North Texas scenario I was talking about earlier isn’t looking so hot either… the low level winds just won’t be there to support vigorous (tornadic?) supercells south of Dallas in the early/mid evening hours. More later…
As I end this post at 6:10pm, there is finally an updraft base developing to my immediate west-southwest between Seward and Larned.
Time, 3:51 PM. All along, I was hoping to play Tail End Charlie the southern __ storm of this event today. And there is aggressive tiring cumulus to the south, there, St. John and Pratt down in that area. The stuff, north east of [Hoistenton?] will not be tailed in in my opinion. So, I will head south from great bend into Stafford County probably.
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Time is 3:30 PM. I’m heading to the east toward Hoisington. Towering cumulus to the east northeast is fairly aggressive. This will be my first target, these towers just to the east of Hoisington. More later.
[ Transcribed by MyCaption ]
Well instead of Lb’s I’m having lunch along the interstate since there are already agitated cumulus developing along the dryline. I may need to hedge east first before going south. If I do go south to my original target. This is close to my target anyway. This early cu development bodes well for the dryline farther south later on perhaps.
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