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December 29, 2010

Central Plains New Years Eve Winter Storm [post 2]

Filed under: 2010 Dec 31 — Mike U @ 1:39 pm

Another miss — Snow drought to continue in Southwest Kansas. It seems to be pretty clear now that the track of the storm is going to be such that Southwest Kansas will see the dry intrusion as cyclogenesis occur basically right over western Kansas… which is NOT where you want cyclogenesis to be occurring (over your head).  At any rate, at least some portion of the High Plains will see some winter precipitation.  I think if I had the opportunity to “snow chase” this system (which I don’t due to work), I would be on the fence with this one.  A lead wave will push significant Gulf of Mexico moisture east, which will limit snowfall totals.  Nevertheless, the forcing for ascent will be very good, and there will be an axis of heavy snow (6″ or greater).  Strong winds creating a decent blowing/drifting snow event would have me interested.  I kind of like Ogallala, NE right now as my virtual snow chase target (considering Dodge City as my starting point) with 6-9″ and 20-35 mph north winds.  This would extend northeast to north-central Nebraska into southern and eastern South Dakota…and eventually up into Minnesota (again!!).  See Figure 2 for details from the latest GFS model.  Figure 1 shows a dProg/dT of the GFS over the last 4 runs of the 500mb forecast and SLP/Precipitation.  The deterministic GFS appears to be locked into this solution taking the upper low from far southeast Colorado through Nebraska.  This is similar to the Canadian GEM and the ECMWF.


Figure 1


Figure 2

December 28, 2010

Central Plains New Years Eve Winter Storm [post 1]

Filed under: 2010 Dec 31 — Mike U @ 10:33 pm

I have decided to begin blogging on the upcoming winter storm to affect the central plains since significant impacts look to include at least a portion of western Kansas. Western Kansas has had a dearth of precipitation this cold season, and this upcoming storm looks to be the best shot at widespread significant snow for at least some locations of the western plains that have not seen much at all this winter. To give you an idea how bad it’s been for western Kansas, the total snowfall for Dodge City through December 28th has been a whopping 0.2“! At Goodland, Kansas, 0.4” of snowfall has been recorded so far this winter. Now granted, The first half of the cold season is typically fairly scant with snowfall in western Kansas as compared to January-March, when most of the cold season average occurs, but still, this is certainly below average.

Now that we are within 72 hours of the event, the focus is becoming a bit more clear on potential impact. Snow and wind. Just exactly where these impacts will be depends on the track of the mid level cyclone. This appears to be a classic case of Rossby Wave downstream development as a Pacific trough centered just west of the dateline pumps a ridge around 145W longitude…and then subsequent trough development further downstream along the west coast of the U.S. All along the models have shown the ridging to be fairly broad over the Gulf of Alaska, which in turn would suggest a downstream mid-latitude cyclone development over the Rockies with the cyclone undergoing its most significant deepening as it exits the Rockies and enters western Kansas/Nebraska. Typically, this kind of track would not favor heavy snow for Southwest Kansas. If the ridge amplifies more than the GFS and ECMWF suggest, then the downstream equatorward transport of high-Potential Vorticity (PV) air would likely be driven farther south…and mid-level cyclogenesis occurring over New Mexico. Interestingly enough, the last couple runs of the GFS model have suggested a slightly deeper, southern solution. This would put more of western Kansas in play for potential heavy snow and wind.

I’ve attached two figures to this first post. Figure 1 shows water vapor loop from the evening of 28 December showing the source of the PV air that is the seed of the upcoming central Plains storm. Figure 2 is model output from the 18z run of the GFS model earlier today. I’ve annotated on both Figures some important features such as the jet core in white in Figure 1 and the PV air stream is also noted in both figures (along with what the ideal PV anomaly track is for heavy snow in Southwest Kansas). It should be noted that a shift in the PV anomaly of 70-120 miles farther south would put Dodge City on the southern edge of a nice snow and wind event. It’s obviously what I’m hoping for as a snow nut, but I’m not exactly anticipating it at this point. It will (hopefully) become much more clear tomorrow whether this will be yet another classic miss for Dodge City or if, in fact, we actually do see some nice accumulating snow for a change!

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Figure 1

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Figure 2

May 25, 2010

May 22, 2010 South Dakota Tornado-fest [post 1]

Filed under: 2010 May 22,Latest Chases,Storm Chasing — Mike U @ 9:21 am

Preliminary Images:

May 9, 2010

Central Plains Severe Weather Outbreak 2010 May 10 [post 1]

Filed under: 2010 May 10 — Mike U @ 3:33 pm

Significant severe weather event to unfold Monday, May 10 across the Great Plains. There is a lot of hype in the meteorological and storm chasing community regarding the Monday, May 10th setup, and it is deserved.  Much of the focus in the storm chasing community centers around the southern Kansas to northern Oklahoma area…along the I-35 corridor from Wichita to Oklahoma City and points east.  This is where the NAM model has kept the best focus in terms of surface-based CAPE and wind shear combination.  I think there is a strong possibility of tornadic storms farther north, however.  The ECMWF and GFS models have been very consistent in spreading a warm nose northeast well into western and central Kansas…with associated CAPE > 1000 J/kg as far north as I-70 corridor.  I think tornadic storms will be favored in the area of strongest low level thermal/moist advection as well as frontogenesis… in response to the mid level potential vorticiy (PV) anomaly moving due east across Kansas.  The greatest low level response should be across Central Kansas during the late afternoon/early evening hours…with tornadic storms forming/evolving in this greatest forcing.  Significant supercell storms will also develop along the dry intrusion/dryline perhaps as far south as central Oklahoma… but the mid level cold advection and forcing will be weaker this far south.  I am really worried about the areas east of I-135 in Kansas from Wichita to Salina and points east to the Missouri border including Topeka, Lawrence, Emporia, Kansas City, and Chanute.  This is the corridor where mid level forcing and subsequent low level response will be strongest, especially during the evening hours.  Significant, long-lived tornadoes may result, and given the storm motion of 40-50 mph, very long track tornadoes are a distinct possibility.  What this basically means is that the probability of at least one small town taking a hit is increased.  Historic F4 and F5 tornadoes have occurred in setups like the one forecast Monday.  I fully expect national media attention when the dust settles after this one.

I think the event will start quite early.  The mid-level PV anomaly will begin to overspread a warm/moist low level atmosphere by 18z with isolated to widely scattered tornadic storms as early as early afternoon as far west as west-central Kansas.  Since I am not due in to work until 10pm, I can chase the early part of this event.  The 18z to 21z time frame is most interesting to me as surface frontogenesis will be increasing substantially along the I-70 corridor from Grainfield to Hays.  After a few hours of sleep, I will likely get up around 9:00am and begin to head northwest toward Oakley, KS by around Noon.  I will chase the early development in “bent back” area of CAPE at the nose of the mid level PV anomaly as it comes into Kansas.  I will not take much insolation to get storms going in the surface frontogenetic/cyclogenetic area outlined in the images below.  The images below are valid 15z, 18z, 21z from the 09/12z model run of the GFS:

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April 4, 2010

Test phone pic

Filed under: 2010 Jan 28 — Mike U @ 6:44 pm

March 19, 2010

Southern Plains Winter Storm 2010 March 20 [post 3]

Filed under: 2010 Mar 20 — Mike U @ 5:00 pm

It’s a No-Go for a snow/blizzard chase. I have decided at the last minute to cancel this chase.  It isn’t so much that I don’t think there will be a substantial snow event somewhere in OK, it’s just that I am seeing conflicting signals in the models, and I am afraid the mid level cyclogenesis will occur too late and too far east… thus limiting the very excessive snowfall (> 12″ and perhaps up to 18″) potential for much of northern Oklahoma.  I would like to see 700mb cyclogenesis occur sooner during the day Saturday instead of Saturday Night into Sunday when by that time the storm will be entering Arkansas.  This is just too far east, and this will really limit blizzard potential.  A major event requires significant southeast to northwest flow in the 500-700mb layer for Great Plains blizzards… and this will likely set up too late for my liking… as the storm enters the far eastern Plains/Ozarks.  I’d rather experience a nice wind-driven drier snow vs. wind driven wet snow like this system will have, too.  Non-meteorological factors are at work here too, such as the fact that I have been living out of a suitcase every 5 to 7 days it seems since late January… I want to relax and enjoy some March Madness this weekend… and I have some things to get done around the house on my 3-day weekend.  So therefore, I have decided to pass on this storm.  I will still blog about it occasionally tomorrow and Sunday.

Southern Plains Winter Storm 2010 March 20 [post 2]

Filed under: 2010 Mar 20 — Mike U @ 7:01 am

Target is north-central OK.  70% GO! The 06z off-hour runs of the GFS and NAM are coming into better focus, looking more like the ECMWF in the kinematic fields at most levels of the troposphere… so I have a little more confidence in the resulting QPF fields.  It looks like north-central OK is going to be the sweet spot for this storm…extending into southeast KS.  At this time, for the best daytime action, I am thinking Enid to Perry for a target.  I’d leave right after work and head to either one of these towns.  I’ve pretty much got everything packed and ready to go for a two-nights stay.  I have a high enough confidence that a foot of snow will fall in this area (or very near this area) to take a stab at this, and it’s right at the edge of my ~ 3 hour domain I was limiting myself to.  Winds during the day Saturday in this region will be 25 to 35 mph, so this should be very interesting… wind driven wet snow!  This will make photography a real challenge.  I will be busy at work today forecasting for Southwest Kansas, so I will not update this blog until about 4pm or so with just a brief one or two liner “Go/No Go!” and my final target town.

In the graphic below, my target area is in the dashed red oval:

fcstsnowaccum1

March 18, 2010

Southern Plains Winter Storm 2010 March 20 [post 1]

Filed under: 2010 Mar 20 — Mike U @ 8:15 pm

Interesting snow and wind event on target for much of Oklahoma for Saturday, March 20. In a cold season fraught with southern Great Plains snowstorms, yet another one is on track for the southern plains.  I will blog this particular event since it will be close to Dodge City and has some possible blizzard implications at the height of the storm for some locations.  The global spectral model solutions (GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, Canadian GEM) all show strong mid level (500-700mb) cyclogenesis occurring during the day Saturday as the storm tracks across southern Oklahoma.  This would put much of Oklahoma in the sweet spot of this storm for heavy snow.  A large 1034mb surface high across Wyoming combined with the deepening surface low from north Texas into southeast Oklahoma will support strong north winds with the snow… on the order of 25 to 35 mph during the storm’s height.  There may be some frequent gusts above 40 mph for at least a few hours as well, especially across western Oklahoma on Saturday.  I think this is the best location for blizzard conditions to develop with this storm.  As such, I may be heading down there after I get off work tomorrow afternoon.  The ECMWF shows the most aggressive deepening of the cyclone and stronger low level winds with some 50-60 knots at 850mb on Saturday!  If > 8″ of snow combined with these kind of winds still appears like a decent probability within 3 or 4 hours of Dodge City during the daylight hours Saturday, I will likely make this chase — which would be the second blizzard chase of the season.  Below is the GFS model valid 21z (4pm CDT) Saturday from Thursday’s 18z run:

51hrgfs_vt20100320-21z

February 1, 2010

Dumas, TX Winter Storm Photo Album #2 [51 images]

Filed under: 2010 Jan 28 — Mike U @ 1:33 am

“Day after” images shot in Dumas, TX after 13.5″ of snow fell. The morning after the Jan 28th significant snowfall in Dumas, TX, I ventured out on foot to photograph some of the scenes around the south part of town. I started out walking north along Hwy 287 about 3 or 4 blocks. I then walked one block west and through a small residential area before backtracking to Hwy 287 (Dumas Ave.) where I crossed the highway and did some more shooting in the residential area on the south-central part of town just a few blocks northwest of Pioneer Park. I then did some shooting in the park itself before heading back to Dumas Ave. and to my hotel. This was about an hour and a half walking shoot, and many of the images in the album below are from my walk.

Images 1-4: Days Inn Hotel

Image 5-8: Along Hwy 287 (Dumas Ave.)

Images 9-11: Residential area and adjacent businesses just east of Dumas Ave. at 13th St.

Images 12-22: Residential area east of Dumas Ave between 11th and 14th St.

Images 23-27: Pioneer Park

Images 28-31: Residential area between Dumas Ave. and Pioneer Park

Images 32-40: More shots from the Days Inn Hotel, including 1) a Wyoming traveler cleaning off his pickup, 2) a Colorado traveler who managed to get his Jeep stuck pulling a U-Haul trailer, and 3) a picnic area succumbed by a large snow drift.

Images 41-43: A huge line of semis coming into town from the north on Hwy 287. Hwy 54 was closed west of Stratford about 35 miles north of town, so many of the truckers detoured south through Dumas to Amarillo.

Images 44-48: Farm field blow-off drifting adjacent a residential road on the north side of Dumas.

Images 49-50: Cool snow drift in front of the door to a church on the north side of Dumas.

Image 51: This photo was taken about 4:00am on my way back home to Dodge City. This is in Stratford, TX where Highway 54 was closed from this point west into New Mexico. Truckers were basically stranded here that did not want to detour south. This view is looking west-southwest at the west-bound shoulder. Trucks were lined up about 2 miles!

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January 30, 2010

Southern Plains Winter Storm 28 Jan 2010 [post 18]

Filed under: 2010 Jan 28 — Mike U @ 10:56 am

Chase complete.  Just pulled into the driveway. Since I did this winter storm chase right after midnigh shifts, my sleeping pattern was all out of whack.. and documenting the snowstorm didn’t help matters.  I more or less slept in shifts the past few days.  Much like yesterday.  I slept from about 10:30pm to 2:30am, and was pretty much wide awake at that point, and since I was, decided just to pack up and head home right then and there.  Hwy 287 from Dumas to Stratford was touch and go.  There were stretches of dry pavement, but not long enough stretches to drive comfortably at 60 mph or higher since icy/snowpacked areas (mainly fairly bumpy snowpack) would come upon you quickly.  Hwy 54 was still closed from Stratford west into New Mexico, but thankfully it was open east of Stratford.  Almost the entire stretch from Stratford to Guymon, OK was snowpacked since the road orientation was southwest to northeast, parallel to the prevailing wind direction for the storm.  I probably averaged 35mph during this stretch.  I took some tripoded photos of the stranded truckers on Hwy 54 at Stratford as they awaited the re-opening of the highway west of town.  They were lined up for a good couple miles along the shoulder of the west-bound lane!  East of Guymon, it was pretty much smooth sailing from there, as the road was almost entirely dry from that point until I got home.

There was some dense freezing fog, apparently, last evening and overnight before I arrived along the Guymon to Liberal to Minneola stretch.  Rime ice was pretty thick.  Northeast of Liberal, I stopped briefly at a rest area and did a couple moonlit landscape photos of the rime ice.  I think some of them turned out okay.  Then, at sunrise, as I approached Minneola, the rime ice became much more evident to the eye with increasing light.  Minneola was an amazing sight with tall trees in the neighborhoods coated with thick rime ice.  The white landscape was amazing!  I spent the better part of a half hour to 45 minutes photographing the scenes in Minneola before driving the final leg back home.  I arrived home shortly after 9:00am, which was about a 6-hour trip home, counting all the times I stopped to photograph, so drive-time was probably just under 5 hours, for what would usually be a 3-hour drive.  I have two more albums to upload:  1) the “day after” sequence of about 50 images shot in Dumas yesterday and 2) Rime ice photos from outside of Liberal in the moonlight and also at sunrise in Minneola.  Look for these albums within the next couple days hopefully.  In the meantime, here is what I missed back home… this is my driveway:

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